South Africa-Trump land row may move from aid to trade happymamay

South Africa appears to be a crossroads in relation to wax and retreat with the United States after President Donald Trump’s controversial decision last week to reduce financial aid to the country.

Trump said that South Africa was continuing what he called “unfair and immoral practices” against the white minority community of African and by presenting the issue of genocide against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in December 2023.

His movement has sent a shock throughout South Africa, where experts fear that he will continue to use this opportunity to end preferential access to the American market through his US -known trade program known as the Law of Growth and Opportunities in Africa (Arians).

The two countries have generally had friendly relations since the end of the rule of the White Fly in 1994 when the Apartheid Anti -Nobel Prize icon was elected Nelson Nelson Mandela, the first black president in South Africa.

Although the United States lasted another 14 years to remove Mandela from the “terrorist monitoring list” for its role in fighting the racist regime to separate the apartheid, which was presented by South African rulers at the time in 1948.

The last tension a few days after Trump’s inauguration last month when South African President Cyril Ramavusa was The law signed the bill of confiscationAllowing the government to confiscate lands without compensation in certain circumstances.

Trump’s response came last week When he threatened to cut future financing On what was called “terrible things, terrible things” the leadership of the country was doing.

The US President also accused South Africa, without any basis, in reality, “the confiscation of lands” and “doing things that may be much worse.”

He doubled in the face of the severe refute of the South African government and signed an executive on Friday.

This adds approximately 440 million dollars (353 million pounds) – according to what was reported, the amount of aid was allocated in 2023 – although the American embassy in South Africa later said that funding from Pepfar, an American program that reflects the global spread of a deficiency virus Human immunity, It will not be affectedAdd the warning that “you will not resume all PePfar activities.”

South Africa is one of the largest beneficiaries in PePFAR, which contributes about 17 % to the HIV/AIDS program where about 5.5 million antiviral people receive.

In his executive order, Trump also accused South Africa of “ignoring a shocking of the rights of its citizens” and assuming “aggressive sites” against the United States and its Israeli ally in the International Court of Justice case.

In addition to freezing aid, Trump has offered the help of refugees from the Africanner community, who are most of the egg descendants of the first Dutch and French settlers, to settle in the United States.

He played his position in the hands of conservative African lobby groups, including Avureum and Solidarity, which wants the government to cancel what it calls “race -based laws” such as positive work and black economic empowerment.

This is in harmony with the views of the close Trump adviser, Elon Musk, the technical billionaire born in South Africa. He asked about X why Ramaphosa had “publicly racist royal laws.”

This is not the first time that a land reform policy in South Africa has attracted Trump’s anger.

In 2018, during his first presidency, He accused the South African authorities of “widespread murder for farmers” He asked the Minister of Foreign Affairs at the time to consider the issue of the government “seizing lands from white farmers.”

While Trump’s comments sparked a violent reaction at the time, Dr. Oscar Van Herden, a political analyst at Johannesburg University, BBC, told BBC.

With their relationship now in an unstable state – the two countries weigh their next step.

On the commercial front, Donald Mcai, CEO of Johannesburg Commercial Consulting Company, said that although the United States was one of the largest partners in South Africa, it was not “the closest commercial partner.”

South Africa exports a variety of minerals to the United States, including platinum, iron and manganese.

It is also one of the largest exporters in Awaya, which achieved about $ 2.7 billion of revenues in 2023, most of which are selling vehicles, jewelry and minerals.

“Over the years, this relationship was shining and retreating. It was never strong [since white-minority rule ended in South Africa]. But at the same time, I think he was never injured as it was deteriorating exactly as happened in recent years and I do not think it was a mistake in South Africa. “

But South Africa has admitted that it has done a “lot” in recent years to disturb the United States.

“This irritation accumulates and under President Trump … this is seen as an opportunity to put South Africa in place.”

Dr. Van Herden put the change in dynamics partially to “global transformations” and “a new competition that leads against the United States” such as China, India and Brazil.

While experts talked about the benefits of Awaya, which will appear for the review later this year, they agreed that the influence may not be the same as some fear.

Awaa was introduced in 2000 Access to sub -Saharan African countries give the United States access to more than 1,800 products.

Mr. Mcai said he would be surprised if South Africa continues to benefit from this preferential agreement after the review.

“My instinct is, regardless of the reason for Trump’s anger at South Africa, at the present time, it will be the easiest mechanism to use to punish South Africa.”

Dr. Van Herden added that even if the agreement is not renewed, or ends in South Africa, the companies that are currently benefiting from it will suffer from short -term losses, but they will be able to apostasy within a few years.

He said at the present time that the government of President Ramavusa chooses the diplomatic road – although the lack of the Trump administration apparently in caring for diplomacy greatly reduced the chances of success.

Perhaps this was not helped by South African Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola on Wednesday on Trump’s move, saying that “there is no opportunity” that South Africa will withdraw its cause against Israel in the International Court of Justice.

“Standing alongside our principles has consequences at times, but we are still firm that this is an important matter for the world and the rule of law.” Lamola told the Financial Times.

South Africa has accused Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinians living in Gaza, a claim that Israel denies.

Meanwhile, Ramavusa, as head of Group 20, announced that he would send a delegation all over the world to clarify local and foreign policies of South Africa – with Washington being a major station.

South Africa assumed the leadership of the G20, a group of countries that meet to discuss global economic and political issues, in December last year, and considered it an opportunity to enhance its international position.

But in Snub to South Africa, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that he will not attend a 20 -year -old ministers meeting in Johannesburg.

“My mission is to enhance the national interests of America, not wasting taxpayers’ money or anti -America,” he said.

South Africa is part of the Brexes, and the Alliance of the Great Developing Countries, including Brazil, Russia, India and China, is trying to challenge the political and economic power of the wealthy countries in North America and Western Europe.

Mr. Mcai believes that it will be difficult for South Africa and other countries to move in relations with the United States under the “most unexpected politicians in the world”, indicating that they will have to see the BRICS increasingly as an alternative partner.

But greatly for South Africa, the European Union (EU), one of its largest commercial partners, confirmed its support for the country.

António Costa, President of the European Council – which puts the general political trend and European Union priorities – Posted on X on Monday He spoke to Ramavusa on the phone to highlight the “European Union’s commitment to the deepening of relations with South Africa.”

If the magic of South Africa fails, Mr. Van Herden suggests that the government can choose to “negotiate hard” and use the minerals it provides to the United States as a “bargaining slice”.

But it expresses a warning: “South Africa will have to think very carefully about how they play this chess game [where] The opening maneuver was already by President Trump and Eileon Musk. “