What are the hurdles to Europe’s peace plan for Ukraine? happymamay

Whatever the words used to frame the plans arising from the 19 -European leaders in London – London – the ceasefire, truce or peace plan – the upcoming challenges are enormous.

UK Prime Minister Kiir Starmer hopes, along with French President Emmanuel Macron, that this is the plan to provide permanent peace to Ukraine.

In his heart lies what Mr. Kiir calls “Al -Raghiba Alliance”Those who will help guarantee peace in the event of a deal.

But what are the obstacles – and how easy it is to overcome?

First, can the exhausted armies in Europe and empty messages mobilize anything close to a great deterrent power in Ukraine? What are the countries, unlike the United Kingdom and France, which will be ready to send forces to this unconfirmed scenario given doubts about American support?

Ukrainian President Folodimir Zelinski said he would need an international power Up to 200,000 soldiers To keep the ceasefire along the connection line along 600 miles (960 km) between the two opposing armies, Russia and Ukraine.

Although this number is greatly optimistic, the Ukrainian leader is right to assess the number of the number required to work as an adequate deterrent of any future Russian incursions.

In fact, Europe will fight for a third of this number, as this is the effect of contracts for running on armies, after years of peace profits after the Cold War.

The weather will be decisive. This is both of what is known as ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance] And to repel any future Russian incursions.

There is no benefit from the presence of a UK’s brigade sitting on part of the ceasefire line if thousands of Russian forces and armored vehicles flow through a gap at a gap of 100 miles and there is not enough way to repel it.

The United States has a great ability to intelligence signal, SIGINT, as well as air -to -air refueling, without which it will fight a purely European power. A recent report issued by the International Institute for International Affairs (IISS) mentioned the London -based International Institute:

“Europe’s dependence on the military capabilities in Washington, especially the monetary factors such as ISR and air privilege to the air, will make the follow -up of” independence “a great challenge without a great investment in those areas.

“The United States is also contributing more than half of a fighting attack in NATO and the ground attack,” he says.

In short, assembling a reliable deterrent force to protect Ukraine will be very difficult, if not impossible, without an American military backup.

Donald Trump loves to say that he does not start wars and stop them.

The last thing he wants to do now is to commit fighting forces and air force to the unstable ceasefire line that has the ability to explode into the shooting war that is withdrawn in NATO forces.

Instead, he promoted his favorite way to end this war, which is to do so Cut a direct deal with Russian President Vladimir PutinOne on one.

Sir Kerr’s goal is for Europe to reach a reliable ceasefire, which can then be presented to President Trump in hope – and I confirm this word “hope” – which he then approves to provide it. American military summit.

To date, this looks unlikely.

Why on the ground? – Some argue.

Its wild forces win the battlefield, albeit at a horrific cost in human life and Ukraine, all of them lost their greatest ally in this war: the United States.

Without America’s military support, Ukraine will feel a formulation of the belief of Russian forces in the east and southeast. Without national missiles, its cities will be more likely to attack group missiles by Russia.

President Putin has always made it clear that he would not accept the presence of members of NATO in Ukraine. Now that he has an ally at the White House effectivelyIt is less likely to make room for this point unless President Trump is able to offer a great incentive in return.

The bottom line in all of this is that the Kremlin did not abandon its maximum goals for Ukraine, which is eventually restored to the entire country to the orbit of Moscow, to replace Zelinski with a wonderful and supportive doll for Russia.

At the minimum naked, it is unlikely to budge on its basic request that Ukraine will permanently abandon, not only those lands that Russia is already occupied – in Jacon, Zaburisia, Donitsk and Luhansk – but also abandons the neighboring cities in Khobarsson and Zaburizhia, to become hundreds of thousands of housing in America.