Arsenal’s transfer challenge over striker issue: Alexander Isak highlights need for a killer but no easy solution in January | Football News happymamay

Mikel Arteta’s comments about Carabao Cup match ball dominated the headlines after Arsenal’s semi-final first-leg loss to Newcastle on Tuesday, but the most revealing answer in his press conference concerned the impact of Alexander Isak.

Arteta said about Isaac’s contribution to winning the match: “I don’t think he created or got any big chances, but he participated in both goals, unfortunately, both times the ball was in the penalty area.”

“That’s what you get when you have real quality in attack.”

It was an unusually frank comment from the Arsenal manager, the not-so-subtle implication being that he does not have a striker of the same standard. Arsenal are of course one of the 25-year-old’s suitors. His performance at the Emirates Stadium confirmed why.

While Isak took advantage of his chances, scoring the first goal and setting up Newcastle’s second goal with just two shots, Arsenal ended up with nothing in 23 attempts. The expected goals total of 3.09 was the highest by a team in the Premier League without scoring a goal all season.

On the one hand, it is positive that they were able to create so many chances without their most creative player, Bukayo Saka, and with Martin Odegaard clearly below par after a bout with illness that limited him to being a substitute against Brighton.

But the lack of up-to-date has become an issue. Tuesday’s match was the sixth of the season in which Arsenal failed to score. There were seven other matches in which they scored just one goal. Only three of those matches ended in victory.

Arteta under the microscope. As much for his team’s reliance on set-pieces as for their struggle to convert scoring chances. But he’s not the only manager for whom this is a problem.

The percentage of matches in which Arsenal have scored a maximum of one goal is actually the third lowest among Premier League teams this season. The problem is that he is well above Liverpool, the team they are fighting to keep pace with at the top of the table.

It’s nothing new for Arsenal either.

Arsenal set a club record with a total of 91 goals scored in the English Premier League last season, but there were eight matches in all competitions in which the team did not score, seven of which ended in defeat. Manchester City, the eventual champions, played just four such matches over the course of the season.

Arteta has built a fantastic defence. The mistakes they made against Newcastle were uncharacteristic. But recent history shows the value of firepower, combined with defensive stinginess, when it comes to getting the biggest prizes – and that is what Arsenal is lacking.

Kai Havertz has proven to be an invaluable outlet up front. His final goal against Ipswich was his 12th in all competitions, and he recorded strong numbers after taking over the position last season as well. Meanwhile, Gabriel Jesus is in his best scoring form since joining Arsenal.

But both players are insanely frustrating finishers, which shines through in the underlying data.

While Arsenal’s strikers have outperformed their expected goals to varying degrees over the past three seasons, even taking into account recent declines, the No.9 has done the opposite.

According to Opta’s expected goals model, Havertz and Jesus scored almost five fewer goals than they should have scored, based on the quality of their chances. For Havertz, Tuesday’s game, when he missed 1.13 xG chances, exemplifies the problem.

Why are Issac, Cunha and Mbeumo appealing?

The timing was particularly unfortunate given the exploits of his counterpart Isak at the other end of the pitch.

His goal was his 10th in the last nine games, his 15th of the season, and his 50th in 89 games in total since arriving at Newcastle from Real Sociedad for £63m in 2022.

There is no exact science to the art of scoring goals. But the best players usually score more goals than ‘expected’, and are often helped by the ability to convert more difficult chances as well as simpler ones, something that usually translates into consistent overperformance.

These players have a clear knack for setting up marginal games and Isaac is certainly one of them. Key data for the past three seasons shows he has scored almost four more goals than expected, with 44 Premier League goals from 40.45 xG.

It is worth noting that Wolves’ Matthews Cunha and Brentford’s Brian Mbeumo, two of Arsenal’s other reported attacking targets, have shown the same ability.

His total of 24 goals being from 15.6 x G gives him the second highest positive differential among Premier League players with a minimum of 15 goals since the start of the 2022/23 season. Mbeumo, who, like Isak, scored against Arsenal recently, is not far behind him in the rankings with a total of 31 goals from 25.69 xG.

Arteta is well aware of Arsenal’s need for a finisher. His comments in his press conference after Isak’s defeat on Tuesday left little room for doubt. But setting goals is one thing; Securing them, especially in the middle of the season, is another thing.

Isaac is said to be worth £150 million. He has little incentive to leave and his club has little incentive to sell as he leads their efforts to win titles and return to the Champions League. Signing him in the summer would be difficult enough, let alone January.

Cunha and Mbeumo are equally important to Wolves and Brentford respectively, and while the latter’s contract is set to expire in 18 months, the former is in talks over a new deal.

Arsenal’s other option is to look abroad. But the challenge of adapting to the rigors of the Premier League that new arrivals face, especially midway through the season, is that the club generally favor Premier League-ready additions under Arteta.

In other words, there is no easy solution. But Arsenal must do their best to find one even in difficult circumstances. The need for greater firepower was clear even before Saka’s injury. Tuesday’s loss and Arteta’s comments afterwards underlined the issue.