High stakes as Iran nuclear issue reaches crunch moment happymamay

Almost a decade since the global powers concluded a historical deal to limit the Iranian nuclear program, this is a moment of crisis for Iran and the international community.

The country is now closer than ever to be able to make a nuclear bomb.

The agreement – designed to prevent Iran ends a nuclear weapon – ends later this year.

“It’s a real thorn in the moment,” says Dr. Sanam Vakil of House Chatham House, based in London. “Without purposeful and successful diplomacy, we can see Iran as a weapon or we can see a military strike against the Islamic Republic.”

The deal, which has been negotiated with the hardest over two years under the presidency of Barack Obama, has imposed restrictions on Iranian nuclear activities in exchange for the rest of the sanctions that paralyzed the economy in the country.

But after Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 during his first presidency and restored US sanctions, Iran gradually stopped its obligations.

The enrichment of uranium – used to make the reactor fuel but also from nuclear bombs – has accelerated the level of weapons.

Experts say it will now take less than Iran to enrich enough materials to make one nuclear weapon.

Hence a wave of urgent diplomatic activity by the United States and the other five parties of the deal – the United Kingdom, China, France, Germany and Russia.

A closed meeting at the United Nations Security Council discussed the Iranian nuclear program on Wednesday.

China will host talks with Iran and Russia on Friday in search of a “diplomatic” decision.

“In the current situation, we believe that all parties must maintain calm and control to avoid the escalation of the Iranian nuclear situation, or even walking towards confrontation and conflict,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning this week.

On Wednesday, a message was delivered by President Trump in Tehran by a senior diplomat from the United Arab Emirates.

The contents were not published.

But President Trump, after imposing new sanctions on Iran as part of the “maximum pressure” campaign last week, issued a spicy warning to Iran: a deal or otherwise.

“I wrote to them a message saying,” I hope you negotiate because if we have to enter militarily, it will be a terrible thing. “

It seemed that the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khounai, refused the idea of ​​conversations with “bullying” for us.

Also – publicly – President Masoud Bezishian, who had previously supported the resurrection of the nuclear deal, in exchange for ending the sanctions.

But the country was sending mixed messages.

“There are camps inside the country that prefer negotiations,” says Dr. Facil. “There are camps that see weapons the best opportunity for Iran to manage its security.”

Trump’s confidence in a shortage of offer.

“They have seen his wrong and very bullying approach [Ukraine’s President Volodymyr] Zelinski. “And his strange proposals about Gaza and do not want to be placed in this situation,” Dr. Fakil added.

Iran hates the humiliation of a gun on its head. But it is currently at risk – weakened militarily due to Israeli air strikes last year, which is believed to have destroyed most of the air defenses that protect their nuclear program.

Israel has long wanted to remove the facilities.

Iranian authorities continue to insist that the country’s nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

But concern in the international community has become increasingly sharp.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – in charge of monitoring the complex nuclear deal – says it has witnessed that Iran is strengthening its nuclear capabilities in various facilities throughout the country during the past few years.

Her fertilized uranium stock is up to 60 % purity – near 90 % required for a weapon – it is “growing very quickly”, according to the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi.

“Increased production and highly high uranium accumulation by Iran, which is the only non -nuclear weapons that produce such nuclear materials, is a serious concern,” says the International Atomic Energy Agency in its latest report.

But the International Nuclear Energy Agency is no longer in a position to verify exactly what Iran is doing, because the authorities have removed the equipment of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Mr. Grosso says that diplomatic participation with Iran – through any possible channels – is now urgent and “indispensable.”

On October 18, the parties to the 2015 nuclear deal will lose the ability to impose the so-called “Snap-Back” sanctions on Iran to violate its conditions.

So the United Kingdom, France and Germany are threatening sudden sanctions now, hoping to exert pressure while they are still able to do so.

“We are evident that we will take any diplomatic measures to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, which includes the use of Snapback, if necessary,” said James Cariocke on Wednesday.

The risks are high for Iran – and the world.

“If Tehran decides to build a bomb, it may enrich enough uranium for multiple warheads within weeks,” according to Dr. Alexander Bulvas, who focuses on preventing the nuclear spread of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the latest research in London.

He told the BBC that the design and assembly of a handable weapon will take several months to a year or more.

“Iran is closer than ever to the ability of nuclear weapons,” he says. “But it is still unclear whether he has decided to develop nuclear weapons or if they are looking for negotiating influence.”