Tariffs, trade and visas to dominate talks happymamay

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Moody Washington visits and President Donald Trump will meet later on Thursday, there will be some warm hugs and joint laughter. But this will not be everything.

Trump and Moody have developed a strong personal relationship over the years, characterized by high -level meetings and common appearances. This time, they will also carry a joint journalist, according to the White House.

Since their first meeting in Washington in 2017, their bonds have grown through other events, including joint manifestations in the huge gatherings in Houston and Ahmedabad. Their chemistry stems from the world’s joint views, politics, and the mutual strategic focus on facing China, a source of concern also strengthened India and India’s wider partnership.

It is not surprising that Trump often criticized India, but he never criticized Modi.

Thus, during Moody VisitThe two leaders are likely to spend time setting the following steps in the strategic partnership of the United States and India, which is already in a good place.

Moody will be said to meet many members of the cabinet in Trump, as well as American business leaders and members of American -Indian society.

It may also be met by Spacex and Tesla Chief Elus Musk. Moody, who is keen to expand the scope of the crowded electric car sector in India, will be happy if the musk opens the Tesla factory in India.

However, Trump Modi and his talk about the strategic partnership may hide a realistic fact: during Modi’s visit, the aspect of the transactions of the relationship will become a sharp satisfaction with every leader, especially Trump, armed with a set of demands.

Delhi knows Trump well. Several ministers of the current cabinet served Moody during his previous term, which interfered with part of the first Trump administration. This familiarity has been shown since Trump’s opening last month: Delhi has publicly signal Its willingness to reduce customs tariffs, restore Indian immigrants who are not documented and buy American oil.

She really has Lower Some customs tariffs and regained 104 Indians who are not documented, with the first plane Access In India last week. These proactive steps aim to prevent Trump from submitting specific demands for India and reduce the possibility of tensions with the new Trump administration.

However, Trump may ask Moody to make additional discounts in customs tariffs, to increase the disposal of the trade deficit of American goods and services with India He approached 46 billion dollars (37.10 billion pounds) in recent years.

On Wednesday evening, White House press secretary Caroline Levitte confirmed that Trump has planned to announce a mutual tariff for other countries before meeting Moody.

But Aqaba may become an opportunity: Moody Trump may call for bilateral talks in the economic partnership agreement aimed at reducing the customs tariff on both sides.

In recent years, Delhi has shown a growing readiness Commercial deals. The Trump administration may prove that it is more willing than the Biden administration, which has imposed environmental conditions related to workers on new commercial agreements.

Trump may also ask Modi to restore more uncomfortable Indians. Given that some estimates put the number in More than 700,000 – The third largest group of this in the United States – This will be a difficult and sensitive, Delhi mobility problem.

Last week, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar Parliament said The government was working with the United States to ensure that Indian citizens were not exposed to ill -treatment while they were deported after reports of their limitations of anger.

Trump may also invite Moody to buy more American oil.

In 2021, it was India The upper destination As for the export of American oil, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought significant changes in the global oil markets and pushed Delhi to increasing cheap oil imports to his partner close to Russia. The price point will determine the amount of oil India ready to buy from the United States.

Moody may also come with his own capacity: investing in Indian nuclear energy. Delhi amendment Nuclear responsibility law has announced a new task for nuclear energy, in an attempt to sharpen international interest in fuel.

India aims to meet half of the energy requirements through renewable energy by 2030. Trump’s demand for investment in nuclear fuel is a potential happy way: it is cleaner than fossil fuel, but it is far from solar energy and winds that Trump may not strike management as an attractive investment.

Technology is likely to be discussed.

This was a fast -growing space for bilateral relations in the Biden era, thanks to the implementation of 2022 Initiative on critical and emerging techniques (ICET), which is seen as both sides as a new stone for strategic partnership. ICET is supposed to be directly honored by National Security Advisers – to avoid being abandoned by bureaucracy – which means that each of them must be invested personally.

Moody is likely to ask Trump’s assurances and national security advisor Mike Walz that they are still committed to this. Looking at Washington’s focus on facing China by making India more part of the global supply chains of technology, they are likely to do so.

Also on the Technology Cooperation Front, it may make Moody the stadium for Trump to preserve H-1B visa system. These visas are for high skills foreign workers, which have been strongly criticized by some Trump supportersIt was granted to large numbers of Indian technology employees in the United States.

Other countries may also appear during Moody talks in Washington. Iran can be waving on the horizon in particular.

Delhi participates with Tehran to develop a port in the city of Chabahar – part of a broader Indian strategy to enhance communication links with Central Asia, through Iran and Afghanistan. But last week, the American administration issued a presidential note Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran is determined, which hints to remove exemptions from sanctions for those who perform commercial activities in Chabahar. Moody may seek clarity about the meaning of this La Delhi.

Trump may also measure Modi’s position on the priority of great foreign policy: ending wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Delhi has a strong interest in these wars that ends. Moody’s position in the war in Ukraine – calling for ending the conflict without criticizing Putin or Russia – repeats Trump’s echo.

India’s own relationship with Russia and close relations with Israel may push Trump to see if Modi wants to play a third -party mediator as well. Moody is likely to be comfortable to do so only if the parties are receptive to external mediation.

But despite some sensitive discussions this week, both leaders will want to maintain a positive tone.

In this regard, the quadruple and the Pacific will be what the doctor requested.

Trump strongly supports this group, which consists of the United States, India, Japan and Australia and focuses on facing Beijing.

During his first term, Trump raised annual four -way meetings to the level of the Foreign Minister and raised them with the leadership level.

India is scheduled to host a Quad for this year, and Moody may call Trump to Delhi to attend this.

According to Trump Not a big admire From international travel, but India is a journey that is likely to be keen to do it – to deepen his personal relationship with Moody and progress in a multi -faceted bilateral partnership that extends beyond the transactions that will be carried today in Washington this week.

Michael Kojman is the director of the South Asian Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington

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