China is not backing down from Trump’s tariff war. What next? happymamay

The trade war between the largest economists in the world does not appear any signs of slowdown – Beijing pledged “fighting to the end” hours after US President Donald Trump threatened to tariffs on China.

He can leave Most Chinese imports facing a 104 % amazing tax – A sharp escalation between the two sides.

With the deadline looming on the horizon in Washington, where Trump threatens to provide additional definitions from Wednesday, from Siomed first?

“It will be a mistake to think that China will decline and remove definitions unilaterally,” says Alfredo Montfafe Hilo, Chinese Chinese Center at the Conference Center.

“It will not only make China look weak, but it will also give the United States to ask for more. We have now reached a dead end that is likely to lead to long -term economic pain.”

Global markets have declined since last week when the Trump tariff, which targets almost every country, began in effect. Asian stocks, which He saw the worst decrease in decades on Monday After the Trump administration did not hesitate, he recovered a little on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, China has returned to the beekeepers – 34 % – and Trump warned that he would take revenge on an additional 50 % tariff if Beijing did not retreat.

Understanding is high, with more customs tariffs, which reach more than 40 %, is scheduled to start on Wednesday. Many of them will collide with Asian economies: the tariff on China will rise to 54 %, and those in Vietnam and Cambodia will rise to 46 % and 49 %, respectively.

Experts are concerned about the speed at which this happens, and leave governments, companies and investors a little time to adapt or prepare for a significantly different global economy.

China was She responded to the first round of Trump’s tariff with officials On some American imports, export control tools for rare minerals and anti -bobolic investigation into American companies, including Google.

This time she also announced a retaliatory tariff, but it seems that she is preparing for pain with stronger measures. Its currency, the yuan, allowed weakness, which makes Chinese exports more attractive. The institutions associated with the country buy shares in what appears to be a step to achieve stability in the market.

It seems that the possibility of negotiations between the United States and Japan maintains investors who were fighting to support some of the losses of recent days.

But the confrontation between China and the United States – the world’s largest source and its most important market – is still a great concern.

“What we see is a game that can carry more pain. We have stopped talking about any feeling of gain,” said Marie Le Leij, a commercial expert at the Peterson Institute in Washington, DC, told the BBC.

Although Its economy is slowShe added that China “may be very prepared to endure pain to avoid surrendering what they believe is the aggression of the United States.”

The real estate market crisis has been shaken for a long time and high unemployment, the Chinese people do not spend enough. Local debt governments are also fighting to increase investments or expand the social safety network.

“The definitions are exposed to this problem,” said Andrew Coleer, his oldest colleague at the Musaar Ruhani Business and Government Center at Harvard Kennedy School.

If China’s exports achieve great success, this hurts the flow of decisive revenue. Exports have always been a major factor in explosive growth in China. They remain an important driver, although the country is trying to diversify its economy by manufacturing advanced technology and larger local consumption.

“It is difficult to say exactly when” definitions are bitten “but probably soon,” Coller says, adding, adding that. “[President Xi] It is increasingly difficult for the economy and dwindling resources. “

But not only China that will feel the effect.

According to the American Trade Representative Office, the United States imported the goods of $ 438 billion (342 billion pounds) from China in 2024, when exports to China amounted to $ 143 billion, leaving a commercial deficit of $ 295 billion.

Smart phones, computers, lithium -ion batteries, games and video game devices are the largest part of Chinese exports to the United States. But there are many other things, from screws to boilers.

It is not clear how the United States will find alternative supplies for all these goods in this short notice.

Dibora Elmes, head of commercial policy at the Henretch Foundation in Singapore, says that both countries are “economically intertwined in several ways – there is a huge amount of investment in both directions, and a lot of digital trade flows and data flows.”

“You cannot target a long time for a long time. But there are other ways that both countries can strike each other. So you may say that it cannot get worse, but there are many ways that you can go to.”

Also watch the rest of the world, to see where Chinese imports will go from the American market.

“These places will end in other markets such as those in Southeast Asia [are dealing] With their definitions and thinking anywhere we can sell our products? “

“So we are in a completely different world, and it is really mysterious.”

Unlike the trade war with China during the first period of Trump, which was related to negotiating with Beijing, “it is not clear what motivates these definitions, and it is very difficult to predict the place that things go from here,” says Roland Rajah, the main economist at the Louis Institute.

He adds that China has a “extensive tool group” for revenge, such as its currencies further decrease or installation of American companies.

“I think the question is how much they restrict them?

Some experts believe that the United States and China may participate in private talks. Trump has not yet spoken to the eleventh since his return to the White House, although Beijing has repeatedly indicated his willingness to talk.

But others are less hope.

“I think the United States overcomes her hand,” says Ms. Elmz. It is skeptical of Trump’s belief that the US market is so profitable that China, or any country, will eventually bend.

“How will this end? No one knows,” she says. “I am really worried about speed and escalation. The future is more challenging and the risk is very high.”