Welsh Grand National: Jamie Lynch's guide for Chepstow's showpiece

Our Senior Model Analyst, Jamie Lynch, assesses the credentials of ten of the top candidates for Friday’s Chepstow maiden, live on Sky Sports Racing.

The Coral Welsh Grand National, at 2.50pm on Friday, is a race with a rich history, run in the 19th century, and has stood the test of time. It still has great traction, which is highlighted by this year’s entries.

The experience at the track in early December has been the pivotal benchmark for racing in recent years, but we have no such evidence this time after losing that encounter to Storm Darragh, so, to help with the homework, here’s a rundown of the main contenders for Chepstow’s masterpiece and the verdict (Pre-announcements) are your best bet.

Watch the Coral Welsh Grand National from Chepstow live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 519) on Friday 27 December.

Evie Vladimir

Coach: J.B. Cromwell

An interesting contender from an Irish stable with an excellent record with British Raiders (21 winners in the last three seasons). This lad sat on the sidelines for 18 months after laying the foundation but broke out last season while promising greater heights in the future, and remained in the mix when he fell to third at Porterstown on his return. He has hidden depths, but one thing that is clear from his record is that he loves clay.

Fontaine collage

Miss V. Williams

This runner came back strongly at Haydock (beating Monbeg Genius and company) but this is not unusual for her, given that fresh is generally the best time to catch her, in contrast to her lackluster second start which saw her finish in fifth, fourth and ninth in previous seasons – A problematic pattern for Chepstow. On the face of it, going up 8lbs to 148 for her demolition job at Haydock is by no means harsh, but history warns against breeding, and she has been lost in large fields in the past.

Galia des Letuxs

Dr. Skelton

Her marathon attempt was arguably her best ever run – second in the Classic Chase (from a mark to which she has now returned) and eighth in the Grand National when still in the thick of things heading into the finish. She has not hit her first line yet this season but the ground was not soft for her liking and she looked like new for most of the Coral Gold Cup. This race is designed specifically for her.

Iron bridge

Junejo and A. J. O’Neill

It is better to focus on the 17 he has beaten rather than the ones he has not beaten (34 lengths behind runaway winner Naslam) when assessing his second in this race last year, and he is 6lbs lower in the handicap now, thanks to a stronger run. Races rather than any loss of ability as such. His reappearance at Carlisle was not enough of a test of stamina and so he was well shaped for third at under 12lbs behind Val Dancer, and everything is in place for a big start from him. He has gone under the radar a bit with the stable fielding Monbeg Genius as well.

i will do it

S Thomas

He’s been there, done that, and earned many shirts. The 2021 Welsh National Champion, plus he almost won the race without a saddle last year (just behind Iron Bridge) when he was at a higher weight, with a 7lb conditional entry as here. He will be 12 in a few days, but has covered relatively low miles and, despite being out for so long, has presumably stayed fresh for the purpose, remembering that he won the Classic Chase for the first time in 2023.

Jubilee Express

S Thomas

Less exposed after just ten runs, but he’s already shown what he is, a mudbird stacked with endurance, highlighted by his peak last season when he grinded over 3m into not only a heavy but heavy Hajduk. No sooner had he crossed the line that day than Sam Thomas likely hatched a plan towards the Wales national team, a fitting test for survival, and the lack of a preparatory round does not disgust him given his first-place record in the Championship. Stable which saw Iwilldoit win the Classic Chase after a year off.

Genius Moonbeam

Junejo and A. J. O’Neill

What’s still seared in my mind is his third win in the 2023 Altima behind Kurach Rambler and Vasturslaw, and it’s a wonder he hasn’t been able to win since then, but at least he started this season better than he finished last season. The second (to Fontaine Coulonge) in Hajduk. With his tools and talent, he could easily win this, but trusting him to do it is another thing, and the confidence issues extend to his endurance at Chepstow, his first ever marathon.

Stuzikini

J. Elliott

This competition features youngsters as young as six years old, including five winners in the past 20 years. He sprung an upset at Troytown at odds of 20-1 last time out when the field had nine runners but the Welsh National’s problem is less of the increased test (forms such as Resident All-rounder) and more of the increased mark, up 9lbs.

This seems an exaggeration on the face of it given that his form was not really up for the title at Navan, but what boosts his chances is the simple fact that he is an invulnerable horse from the stable of an Irish superpower.

Where it all started

J. Elliott

He had no wins in his first seven chases but finally flexing his endurance muscles made the difference in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown (winning by 16 lengths on heavy ground) and perhaps sacrificed his chance at the Irish National itself by running in Kim Muir at Cheltenham where he It was in fourth place for Inuthawayorthinkin. There’s still a feeling that it’s not quite complete yet, especially in terms of stamina, but coming here for the first time is a big ask even if we’re dealing with Gordon Elliott.

Your own story

Miss Lucinda V. Russell

You don’t need a degree to diagnose the problem with Your Own Story, a confirmed case of ‘second inflammation’, having finished second on no fewer than eight occasions over fences, including endurance events at Punchestown last May and Kelso, IN National borders, last time. He’s going to do well for a long time but if he can’t win these games how is he going to win this?

Referee: Jimmy Lynch

They say I’m once shy twice, but I endure Galia des Lito For the Coral Gold Cup I think the losses here can be made up against a more suitable test, where the company is a little less hot, the journey is much longer and, most importantly, the ground is noticeably softer. If Dan Skelton could design a race for it, I’m sure it would look very much like this.